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Prediction for CME (2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-02-06T14:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19097/-1
CME Note: This is a partial halo CME as seen in the west of STEREO A COR2 and is seen in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption beginning around 2022-02-06T12:04Z near AR 12939 characterized by a filament eruption best seen seen in SDO AIA 304, dimming and an EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. The L1 shock arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2022-02-06T15:38 CME is around 2022-02-09T20:09Z and the flux rope part possibly starts around mid-day on 2022-02-10.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T20:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-02-07T00:03Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 408
Longitude (deg): W000
Latitude (deg): S03
Half-angular width (deg): 37

Notes: At least partial halo from near-centre disc spiralling filament lift-off assw long-period C-class flare. Clear on C2 and St COR2, unusually clean fit. Part of at least three shock fronts visible, this is the main one, being angled on ecliptic to a degree. Likely hit and Likely G1.

Other two parts of MOSWOC Enlil modelling going into estimate for this CME: Firstly S30E009 822km/s 25deg T21.5R 06/02/2022 19:29UTC - lowest confidence of three constituent parts, mainly directed below ecliptic. Secondly S22E003 631km/s 24deg T21.5R 06/02/2022 19:18UTC - foremost shock from CME.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 66.90 hour(s)
Difference: 10.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-02-07T01:15Z

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